The SAŠA Development Agency, under which the SAŠA Just Transition Centre operates, commissioned a study titled “Social and Economic Consequences of the Premature Closure of the Šoštanj Thermal Power Plant and the Velenje Coal Mine.” The study provides a detailed analysis of the current situation and the social and economic consequences of the closure of the Velenje Coal Mine and the Šoštanj Thermal Power Plant, and serves as the basis for developing measures at the levels of local communities, the Development Agency, legislators, and the business sector.
It addresses the complex challenges posed by the transition from coal mining and a premature closure of the Šoštanj Thermal Power Plant and the Velenje Coal Mine. The study focuses on the economic and social consequences of this transition, particularly on employment, loss of income, and the necessary support measures to mitigate the negative impacts.
It defines the direct and indirect economic effects of the closure of TEŠ and PV, as well as the social and public finance impacts of the closure of both companies. It addresses the energy aspects of the SAŠA region as an energy location and defines recommendations for the restructuring process of the entire SAŠA region.
The analysis of the situation and the consequences of restructuring and the just transition is divided into two parts: one part relates to the assessment of the consequences of closing the TEŠ and PV systems, and the other part relates to the search for new potential in the region and the support measures needed to realise it.
It is prepared according to the three defined scenarios:
- Scenario 1 (SC_1) – Adjusted production and a soft transition to closure, which assumes that coal production and, consequently, electricity and heat production will continue until at least 2033, followed by a period of several years of closure work (a moderate decline in production from 1.8 million tons in 2025 to 1 million tons in 2033 and around 0.2 million tons after 2033 to maintain TEŠ as a “cold reserve”).
- Scenario 2 (SC_2) – Minimum production and transition to closure, which assumes initial coal extraction of 1.2 million tons in 2025, followed by a decline to 1 million tons by 2033, when extraction ceases.
- Scenario 3 (SC_3) – Rapid abandonment of production and immediate transition to closure, which envisages the permanent shutdown of TEŠ as early as 2026-2027 and, accordingly, the cessation of coal mining in 2027.
